Annual Polling Confirms Sustained Public Confidence in U.S. Intelligence

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs recently published results from the second round of an annual poll, sponsored by the Texas National Security Network at the University of Texas at Austin, which aims to shed light on Americans’ perceptions of the intelligence community. The data collected in 2018—including survey methodology and limited policy analysis—are available here. The baseline survey, conducted in 2017, was reported last year in “Glasnost for U.S. Intelligence: Will Transparency Lead to Increased Public Trust.”

This second round of polling, which we led at the University of Texas at Austin, confirmed a modest increase in Americans’ assessment of the intelligence community’s utility and effectiveness, notwithstanding persistent expressions of hostility and distrust by the president. Starting before his inauguration, President Trump vigorously rejected the intelligence community’s consensus judgment on Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections, and since then he has repeatedly attacked these agencies and their former leaders. In 2018, the president went so far as to accuse the intelligence community of spying on his 2016 campaign, and his supporters labeled it as an anti-democratic “deep state” hostile to his administration.

But despite the unprecedented public antagonism from the chief executive, most Americans, including Republicans, continue to express confidence in the intelligence community. Indeed, survey results from summer 2018 show a slight improvement from 2017 in public views of the community’s effectiveness.

With two years of survey data available, we can begin to develop a more reliable understanding of the American public’s attitudes toward the country’s intelligence agencies. Most Americans regard the intelligence community as vital to national security and its performance as increasingly effective—in particular, in preventing terror attacks. But the public does not have a good understanding of how the intelligence agencies are supervised and how oversight is exercised.

While the trend lines that emerged between 2017 and 2018 were generally positive for the intelligence community, knowledge about—and support for—U.S. intelligence is weakest among younger Americans. Millennials, the youngest generational cohort analyzed here, are less likely to see the intelligence community as playing a vital role in warning against foreign threats or even to regard it as effective in preventing terrorist attacks.

Below is a brief overview of our findings:

• Once again, a strong majority of Americans (59 percent) said the intelligence community plays a vital role in protecting the country, including 60 percent of Republicans. Larger percentages of Americans belonging to the Silent Generation (78 percent of those born between 1928 and 1945) expressed this view in 2018, compared to 67 percent of Boomers (1946-1964), 58 percent of Gen X-ers (1965-1980), and only 47 percent of Millennials (1982-1996).
• An overwhelming majority of Americans regarded the intelligence agencies as effective in accomplishing their assigned missions, with nearly eight in 10 crediting the intelligence community for preventing terrorist attacks.
• Only half of Americans (51 percent) believe the intelligence community effectively safeguards their privacy and civil liberties while pursuing its mission.
• Almost all Americans (89 percent) agreed that the intelligence community should use all lawful means to gather intelligence. But the number of Americans who believe the intelligence agencies should respect the rights of foreigners to the same degree as U.S. citizens grew by 15 percentage points from 2017 to 2018, from 38 percent to 53 percent.
• The overall number of Americans who agreed the intelligence community could share more information with the public without compromising its effectiveness increased from 2017, rising from 54 percent to 65 percent. This view was shared by nearly seven in 10 Millennials.
• Americans remain divided over which government officials or institutions should be responsible for supervising and overseeing the intelligence agencies.