Armed Conflict

Lawfare Daily: Gulf Countries Hedging Amid Iran War Debacle

Julia Curlee, Shawn Howard, Ariane Tabatabai
Thursday, October 8, 2026, 7:00 AM
How are the Gulf states coping with the Iran war?
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Lawfare Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee talks with former CIA analyst Shawn Howard and Ariane Tabatabai of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs about Shawn’s new Foreign Policy essay on how the Gulf states are coping with a war they didn’t start. They discuss why U.S. protection has made the Gulf states targets, how Tehran sees them, Iran’s strikes on the mediators, the possibility of a UAE side deal, and what a post-midterm return to U.S. bombing would mean for the region.


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Julia Curlee

Julia Curlee

@juliacurlee.bsky.social
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Julia Curlee is a Public Service Fellow at Lawfare and a former CIA analyst with twenty-five years of experience in national security. She served as an NSC director in the Biden and second Trump White Houses and as a PDB briefer to the Vice President. She completed multiple tours in the Middle East and South Asia and served in CIA's China Mission Center. She holds master's degrees from the National War College and American University. The opinions presented here are her own and not those of the U.S. government.
Shawn Howard

Shawn Howard

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Shawn Howard is a former CIA analyst.
Ariane Tabatabai

Ariane Tabatabai

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Ariane Tabatabai is the Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a contributing editor at Lawfare. Previously, she served in a number of roles in the U.S. Department of State and Department of Defense, including as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Education and Training. She is the author of "No Conquest" and "No Defeat" and co-author of "Triple Axis – Iran’s Relations with Russia and China."
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