Scaling Laws: Forecasting AI's Impact on the Economy with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus

Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus, joins Kevin Frazier to unpack new forecasts on how AI could reshape the labor market over the next decade.

The conversation centers on a striking divergence between Metaculus forecasts and projections from institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics—raising fundamental questions about whether existing tools for understanding the economy can keep pace with rapid technological change.

Deger walks through key findings from the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, including:

• A potential decline in overall employment by 2035
• Increased pressure on entry-level workers and early-career pipelines
• The emergence of “lean” firms generating more value with fewer employees
• A counterintuitive “wage paradox,” where fewer jobs may coincide with higher wages
• The growing role of political power, regulation, and licensing in shaping labor outcomes

The discussion also explores second-order effects, including how contraction in high-paying sectors could ripple through local economies, and what a shift away from traditional four-year degrees might mean for students and policymakers.

Finally, Deger situates these forecasts within a broader vision: forecasting as a form of epistemic infrastructure. As AI accelerates change, the ability to form accurate beliefs about the future—and update them quickly—may become a core component of effective governance.

*This episode was recorded on April 23, 2026. Metaculus is a live platform. It's likely that forecasts mentioned have subsequently changed.*