Scaling Laws, Radical Optionality: Governing Transformative AI, with Christoph Winter and Charlie Bullock

Alan Rozenshtein, Research Director at Lawfare and Visiting Senior Fellow at the Institute for Law & AI (LawAI), spoke with Christoph Winter, LawAI Founding Director and Assistant Professor of Law and AI at the University of Cambridge, and LawAI Senior Research Fellow Charlie Bullock, about their new paper "Radical Optionality: Governing Transformative AI Under Uncertainty," which argues that, given the possibility of transformative AI within the next decade and deep uncertainty about its capabilities and risks, governments should aggressively build the institutional capacity to regulate competently when needed, rather than either deferring to the market or locking in premature substantive rules.

The conversation covered the four foundational assumptions underlying the paper and what makes the optionality "radical"; the difficulty of regulating an exponentially improving and poorly understood technology and what it means to "feel the AGI"; why a pure permissionless-innovation approach breaks down once the national-security implications of transformative AI come into view; why the European precautionary approach risks regulating without the expertise to enforce; the centrality of hiring and talent and what an adequately funded U.S. counterpart to the UK AI Security Institute would look like; the concrete work that such an agency would do, including evaluations, standard-setting, and procurement-side cybersecurity requirements modeled on CMMC; the importance of building international information-sharing channels among liberal democracies before they are urgently needed; and the case against broad federal preemption of state AI laws before any federal regulatory framework exists.