Today's Headlines and Commentary
Last night, Scotland rejected rupturing its 307-year old bond with the United Kingdom, with 54-55% of registered voters voting against independence. According to the Washington Post, the tally for the “no” camp was higher than most polls predicted, in light of an unprecedented, 85% turnout across the territory.
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Last night, Scotland rejected rupturing its 307-year old bond with the United Kingdom, with 54-55% of registered voters voting against independence. According to the Washington Post, the tally for the “no” camp was higher than most polls predicted, in light of an unprecedented, 85% turnout across the territory. In a speech after the loss, SNP leader Alex Salmond conceded defeat but said that he would “hold British leaders accountable for pledges they made,” including promising to disperse ever more power from London to Holyrood, the Scottish Parliament. For his part, UK Prime Minister David Cameron said that the result was “clear” and that the Scottish referendum represented “an opportunity to change the way the British people are governed.” The BBC has details.
Yesterday, the Senate approved the White House’s plans to train and arm Syrian rebels by a vote of 78-22. However, the vote set up what some are already calling the “Syria Cliff,” as legal authority to train the moderate Free Syrian Army will expire on December 11. Tucked at the bottom of a New York Times article on the vote is this revealing line: “There were moments that made it seem as if the Senate were debating something far more routine than military action. Only 15 senators spoke, and the chamber was often empty.”
The vote comes as a widening gap between Obama and senior U.S. military officials has become visible. According to the Washington Post, retired General James Mattis became the latest high-profile military skeptic yesterday, telling the House Intelligence Committee that “Half-hearted or tentative efforts, or airstrikes alone, can backfire on us and actually strengthen our foes’ credibility.”
However, the coalition that President Obama and senior leadership have been building is beginning to act. Reuters reports that French fighter jets have struck ISIS targets inside Iraq earlier today. French President Francois Hollande’s office released a statement noting that the strikes hit a logistics depot in northeast Iraq and that there would be further operations in the coming days.
Even so, as air strikes intensify, the much more difficult ground operations to take back key Iraqi cities such as Mosul and Fallujah must begin. The Times notes that in recent days, military officials have been increasingly willing to acknowledge that rolling back ISIS will require American Special Forces on the ground to call in airstrikes and direct Iraqi troops as they advance on ISIS positions. Military officials plan to use Iraqi security forces, Kurdish fighters, and local Sunnis, but assembling those ground forces will take time. The New York Times details Iraq’s new national guard strategy that will set up local forces under the authority of provincial governors.
The Long War Journal has detailed coverage, including maps and videos, of the ongoing siege of the northern Syria of Kobane, where ISIS fighters are battling Kurdish forces for the third consecutive day.
Finally, Defense News reports that ISIS may be conducting its on pivot to the Pacific as the militant group looks to expand its reach into East and Southeast Asia.
In the New York Times, Charlie Savage, citing our own Jack Goldsmith, writes that Congress’s refusal to act on ISIS could create a precedent that grants the executive branch even greater war powers. Elsewhere in the Times, Mark Landler explains how the White House’s definition of war, combat operations, and ground troops so narrow that is rejected by “virtually every military expert.”
Finally, the Daily Beast suggests that “even a top Democrat thinks Obama’s legal case for war makes no sense.”
According to AFP, the new round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program open today at the United Nations and are slated to continue until the end of next week. Analysts predict there will not be any new breakthroughs in this latest round of negotiations, which are being held between Iran and the P5+1 - the UK, China, France, Russia, and the US, plus Germany.
In an address to a joint session of Congress yesterday, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko urged the United States to support his country militarily against Russia by supplying “heavy military equipment.” However, after a later meeting with President Obama, Poroshenko accepted a US aid package of $46 million of nonlethal kit that fell short of his request, saying, “I got everything possible.” The New York Times has details on the equipment being provided, as well as other assurances President Obama made to the Ukrainian government in its continuing confrontation with Russia and separatist rebels.
While sanctions appear to be hobbling manifold sectors across the Russian economy, if the Kremlin has its way, one will be impervious: the Yamal natural gas plan. Yamal is a $27 billion natural gas venture hoping to tap into the tremendous reserves hidden under the Siberian plain and double Russia’s stake in the worldwide LNG market. Yet that success is now imperiled; while Yamal’s shareholders have already dumped $6 billion into the project, increasingly-strict US and EU sanctions threaten to throttle their funding. Still, the Russian government, which holds the third-largest foreign exchange reserves at $460 billion, has pledged to support the program no matter what. Reuters has more.
In its continuing campaign against Islamist militants from Boko Haram, the Nigerian military and police have been accused by Amnesty International of not just condoning torture of captured suspects, but making it such “an integral part of policing in Nigeria that many stations have an informal torture officer.” According to the BBC, Nigeria’s police have denied the allegations, saying they have a “zero tolerance for torture.” Amnesty International asserts that the organizations’ methods include “beatings, nail and teeth extractions, and other sexual violence.”
The Telegraph divulges that the International Committee of the Red Cross is negotiating a secret prisoner swap between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram to exchange some of the militant group’s jailed senior leaders for the 220 schoolgirls Boko Haram captured earlier. This is the first official confirmation that the Nigerian government is involved in negotiations with Boko Haram, but Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, continues to deny that any talks are taking place.
Reuters reports that on Thursday in New Delhi, Chinese President Xi Jinping responded to Indian assertions of Chinese border violations in the Himalayas by saying, “China is not a warlike nation.” While officials have branded President Xi’s trip to India as deepening Sino-Indian ties, with over $20 billion in deals signed over the past few days, a recent border skirmish along the two countries’ disputed boundary in the Himalayan plateau is overshadowing bilateral talks. Still, officials did confirm that soldiers pulled back from their positions near Ladakh in an effort to ease the tensions.
According to Time, the White House announced on Thursday that Richard Verma will be the new US ambassador to India. After his confirmation by the Senate, Verma will be the first Indian-American to hold the post. His nomination comes just before President Obama greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States on September 29th and attempts to broker deals with him to offset China’s growing influence. US officials denied Modi a visa to visit the US in 2005 when he was chief minister of Gujarat, in part because of his alleged role in communal violence there that killed over 1,000 people.
According to Reuters, Aafia Siddiqui, commonly known as Lady al-Qaeda, is abandoning her most recent appeal. The 42-year old neuroscientist received an 86-year sentence in 2010 for attempting “to shoot and kill a group of FBI agents, US soldiers, and interpreters who were about to interrogate her for alleged links to al-Qaeda.” Siddiqui has become a banner for militant groups around the world, who have demand her freedom. Siddiqui is trying to be released to Pakistan through diplomatic channels, but her lawyer, Robert Boyle, believes she does not fully understand US law and may be giving up her only chance at release.
On Thursday, the CIA released a comprehensive grouping of declassified articles from its internal journal, “Studies in Intelligence.” Jack covered the release on for Lawfare. The documents offer a perspective into the agency’s research on topics ranging from al-Qaeda to how to manage “public relations crises.” The Washington Post has more.
Finally, if you are in the market for an aircraft carrier, look past Russia. Kyle Mizokami of War is Boring writes on the harrowing ordeal of the INS Vikramaditya and the Russian construction firm that almost sunk it.
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Cody Poplin is a student at Yale Law School. Prior to law school, Cody worked at the Brookings Institution and served as an editor of Lawfare. He graduated from the UNC-Chapel Hill in 2012 with degrees in Political Science & Peace, War, and Defense.
Ben Bissell is an analyst at a geopolitical risk consultancy and a Masters student at the London School of Economics. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Virginia with majors in political science and Russian in 2013. He is a former National Security Intern at the Brookings Institution as well as a Henry Luce Scholar, where he was placed at the Population Research Institute in Shanghai, China.