Today's Headlines and Commentary

In what would appear to be the apex of recent tensions between Russia and Turkey, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu accused Russia of pursuing “ethnic cleansing” against the Turkmen and local Sunni Muslim population in Northern Syria as part of efforts to protect Russian interests in the region. A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed the claims as “groundless.”

Of course, Turkey is not the only one with heightened rhetoric. In a televised interview with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Russian President Vladimir Putin floated the possibility of bringing nuclear weapons into the fight against the Islamic State. Putin said that Russia “must analyze everything happening on the battlefield [and] how the weapons operate” in its fight against the group, casually adding that Russia possessed “precision weapons that can be equipped with both conventional and special warheads, which are nuclear.”

The Russian Defense Ministry announced yesterday that it hit ISIS targets using submarine-launched missiles for the first time. Today, Foreign Policy tells us that Russia is using Syria as a training ground for its “revamped military and shiny new toys.” Yet Russia’s exhibitionst phase is likely just a highlight reel for America’s spies, who, Foreign Policy reports, are already incorporating lessons learned about Russian tactics into future battle plans.

Shia militia groups have threatened to use force if Turkey does not respect Baghdad’s demand to withdraw its troops from the country. One militant questioned whether Turkey harbored ambitions of “restoring Ottoman greatness” and said that Turkey “will pay dearly.”

While U.S.-backed Kurdish forces cut off a critical ISIS supply line linking Iraq to Syria when it took Mount Sinjar, Voice of America reports that ISIS has opened new “informal routes through the flat desert of southern Mosul where it uses civilian cars to transfer its fighters and supplies across the border between Iraq and Syria.” The group had been working on the new route before Kurdish forces cut off their old one, but as ISIS faces increasing military pressure, the “new route has become an important lifeline.”

Meanwhile, as Iraqi forces continue their push to liberate Ramadi from ISIS control, it looks increasingly likely that Americans may take part. Reporting on Secretary of Defense Ash Carter’s remarks at Wednesday’s Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, the Atlantic writes that the “Pentagon is prepared to deploy advisers and attack helicopters—if the prime minister of Iraq wants them—to the region to ‘finish the job.’” The New York Times suggests that bringing in helicopters would “deepen American involvement in the war and could bring helicopter pilots under increased risk from ground fire.” Reuters has more.

During his testimony, Secretary Carter opted to keep mum on the details about the special operations force that the Pentagon will deploy to Syria. The Associated Press suggests that “the main point is that the force is intended to ratchet up pressure on the Islamic State by using a small group of special operations troops — possibly fewer than 100 — to more aggressively use intelligence information, to include capturing and killing the group's leaders.” With few details about how the force would actually operate, analysts have expressed skepticism about how their deployment will fit into the broader U.S. strategy.

The Hill tells us that the "House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday passed a bipartisan bill by unanimous voice vote that would authorize the U.S. to directly arm and train the Kurdish peshmerga in the fight against the Islamic State." The bill would prevent delays in delivery of military assistance by allowing it to go directly to Kurdish forces as opposed to passing through Shia-controlled Baghdad. Baghdad is, quite predictably, opposed to the bill.

The New York Times reports that the Pentagon is looking to create a series of bases throughout the Middle East as it continues its fight against the Islamic State and other radical extremist groups. As the group continues to grow and attract foreign fighters, the bases “could be used for collecting intelligence and carrying out strikes against the terrorist group’s far-flung affiliates.” They could also establish an “‘enduring’ American military presence in some of the world’s most volatile regions.”

Following a local ceasefire agreement between Syrian government and rebel forces in the city of Homs, rebel fighters have arrived in the Idlib province with their families as stipulated by the terms of the agreement. The Times tells us that the “United Nations presided over the implementation of the deal, which the mayor of Homs said involved 300 fighters and 400 members of their families leaving Waer, the last rebel-held area of the city.”

Leaders of the disparate Syrian opposition groups met in Riyadh for a two day conference to “to unite anti-regime forces and shape a future political settlement to end the country’s protracted conflict.” Reuters writes that the discussions resulted in an agreement that “Assad should leave power at the start of a transitional period, and called for an all-inclusive, democratic civic state.” Ahrar al Sham, a powerful Islamist insurgent group, withdrew from the discussions after objecting to the fact that “the Saudi conference had not given ‘real weight to the revolutionary factions’ either in terms of their representation at the talks or in the outcome.”

As investigators look deeper into the lives of Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik—the husband and wife who attacked a holiday party in San Bernardino last week—they are finding increasing evidence of long term radicalization. Law enforcement officials said yesterday that Mr. Farook may have plotted an attack as far back as 2012, while the FBI noted that he and Ms. Malik were discussing jihad online as early as 2013—before they were married. The Times astutely observes that this timeline would mean the two attackers were plotting before the Islamic State rose to prominence.

Investigators are now questioning the couple’s friend and neighbor, Enrique Marquez, a convert to Islam who sold or gave the two assault weapons used in the attack to Mr. Farook. Investigators have said that that Marquez told them he and Farook planned an attack in 2012, but called it off. He has said that he was unaware of the couple’s plan to attack the holiday party.

FBI Director James Comey said on Wednesday that at least one of the gunman in the shooting in Garland, Texas used encryption, preventing law enforcement from reading more than 100 of his text messages. Comey told the Senate Judiciary Committee that the attacker had “exchanged 109 messages with an overseas terrorist” the morning of the shooting. It is the first specific example of a terrorist using encryption that Mr. Comey has brought forth to the public.

Mr. Comey also noted in his testimony that whatever Congress does regarding encryption, “encryption is always going to be available to the sophisticated user.” But he contended that because encryption is now the default for so many applications and devices, “it’s affecting every criminal investigation,” not just those that focus on sophisticated actors. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said during the hearing that she and Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) plan to introduce legislation that will “pierce” encryption.

Another American man has been charged with conspiracy to provide material support to the Islamic State, according to the Associated Press. Abdirizak Mohamed Warsame of Minneapolis was charged Wednesday. He is accused of attempting to help other Minnesotan men travel to Syria to fight for ISIS.

As some political figures whip up mistrust and fear, the Post’s Thomas Gibbons-Neff, himself a veteran, profiles a group of Muslims in the U.S. military, many of whom say that the recent statements by Donald Trump and other figures are “un-American.” There are roughly 5,900 U.S. servicemembers who self-identify as Muslims.

French police have identified the third assailant at the Bataclan Concert Hall as Frenchman Foued Mohamed-Aggad. The Times claims that he was identified after his mother received a text message from Islamic State-held territory that read, “Your son died a martyr on November 13.” They then matched DNA found at the scene to hers.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has claimed that his country has become “a powerful nuclear weapons state ready to detonate self-reliant A-bomb and H-bomb.” It is the first time the leader has claimed to possess a hydrogen nuclear bomb. South Korean intelligence analysts responded skeptically to the claim. Daniel Pinkston, an expert on North Korea’s nuclear weapons, said that it was “virtually impossible” that Kim’s latest rhetorical outburst was true.

The death toll at Kandahar International Airport, which abuts Kandahar Military airbase, has risen to 50, Voice of America reports. The Afghan Defense Ministry said that 38 civilians, 10 soldiers, and two policemen were among those killed in the attack, which began on Tuesday and lasted into Wednesday. The Long War Journal calls the attackers a “Taliban suicide assault team.” More than 2,000 U.s. and NATO forces are stationed at the airbase.

Afghanistan’s intelligence chief, Rahmatullah Nabil, has resigned in what the Times describes as “an apparent protest against President Ashraf Ghani’s trip” to Pakistan this weekend. Mr. Nabil criticised talks with Pakistan in a Facebook post on Thursday.

India and Pakistan, two of the world’s nuclear powers, have once again agreed to resume reconciliation talks, according to the New York Times, which calls the agreement a “significant breakthrough after years of strained ties and cross-border violence.” The new “Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue” is set to tackle both Pakistan's concerns over the border with Kashmir and India’s accusations of Islamabad’s backing of terror groups in India.

Reuters reports that a Palestinian attacker was shot dead by Israeli security forces after wounding a soldier and a civilian during a “routine security check.” The attack occurred in the occupied West Bank town of Hebron on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, the Times shares that Israeli officials have arrested five Palestinian citizens in recent weeks on suspicions that they support the Islamic State. Several of those arrested had acquired rifles and practiced shooting in a forest. The Islamic State group is outlawed in Israel, but according to the Shin Bet, 34 Arab citizens of Israel have been arrested in the last year on suspicion of activities related to the Islamic State.

The Long War Journal informs us that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has released a new propaganda video featuring former Guantanamo Bay detainee Ibrahim Qosi, also known as Sheikh Khubayb al Sudani. In the video, Qosi, who is now one of the group’s leaders, discusses his time waging jihad, encourages lone wolf attacks, and assures his listeners that Islamic scholars have confirmed the “correctness” or the “jihadists project.” Qosi plead guilty in 2010 to charges of conspiracy and material support for terrorism. He was transferred to Sudan in 2012 and joined AQAP in 2014, proving a 2007 joint task force assessment correct in that “he would engage in hostilities against US forces if released.”

Speaking of detainees released from Guantanamo: the House Armed Services Committee today released its report on the transfer of American Taliban captive Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl for five high-level Taliban detainees held at Guantanamo Bay. The report, which Lawfare covered, has four major findings, including that the constitutional arguments for the exchange are “incomplete and unconvincing.” The report also suggests that the swap may have been politically motivated in order to make closing the detention facility easier. The Washington Post has more.

The Miami Herald reports that Army Col. Judge James L. Pohl cancelled yesterday’s military commissions pre-trial hearings in the case against the accused 9/11 conspirators after defense attorneys told him that the defendants were told to choose between meeting with delegates from the International Red Cross or going to court.

Parting shot: The second season of the hit NPR show and podcast Serial released today on a subject that will be near and dear to all Lawfare readers: Bowe Bergdahl. Find more on the show here. Take a listen over at NPR.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Paul Rosenzweig provided the latest Bits and Bytes roundup, including notes on the potential Bitcoin arrest, the EU cybersecurity law, and an attack on DNS servers.

Ashley Deeks compared the U.S. and U.K. spy agencies approach to international law.

Susan Hennessey responded to Marcy Wheeler on WMD charges in white ideological violence.

Stewart Baker shared the latest Steptoe Cyberlaw Podcast, which features an interview with Ellen Nakashima and Tony Cole on PLA cyberespionage.

Finally, Fernando Tesón argued that the war against ISIS is just and outlined a few reasons why.

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