Foreign Relations & International Law

Lawfare Daily: External Powers Competition in Africa: Aid, Security, Tech—and African Agency

Katsiaryna Shmatsina, Beverly Ochieng, Jen Patja
Thursday, October 23, 2025, 7:00 AM
How are African states responding to external powers competing for influence in Africa?

Published by The Lawfare Institute
in Cooperation With
Brookings

Katsiaryna Shmatsina, Eurasia Fellow at Lawfare, is joined by Beverly Ochieng, senior security analyst at Control Risks and non-resident expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), to examine how external powers compete for influence in Africa—and how African states are responding.

They discuss the shifting priorities of the second Trump administration, including a “trade not aid” approach, stricter visa policies, and growing pressure on African governments to accept irregular migrants deported from the U.S.

The conversation explores the evolving strategies of key players—the U.S., China, and Russia—alongside the rising influence of Turkey, the UAE, and the European Union’s more diffuse forms of engagement.

They also discuss public perceptions of foreign involvement, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its digital expansion, Russia’s use of private military contractors and information operations, and the increasing role of African regional organizations in shaping the agenda.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.


Katsiaryna Shmatsina is a Eurasia fellow at Lawfare, specializing in Belarus, Russia, and international security. She is a Belarusian-trained lawyer turned political analyst with over a decade of experience in Belarusian and European think tanks, serving as a researcher and political consultant. Among other roles, she was a Rethink.CEE Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. and worked with the International Republican Institute and the American Bar Association. She is currently pursuing her doctoral degree at Virginia Tech in Washington, D.C. Shmatsina is among 20 Belarusian scholars prosecuted in absentia by the Lukashenka regime in a politically motivated trial recognized by human rights groups, the Council of Europe, and the U.S. State Department. She is also listed on Russia’s federal wanted list.
Beverly Ochieng works as a senior analyst in Control Risks’ Global Risk Analysis service. She is responsible for the coverage and analysis of Francophone Africa within the Sub-Saharan Africa team.
Jen Patja is the editor of the Lawfare Podcast and Rational Security, and serves as Lawfare’s Director of Audience Engagement. Previously, she was Co-Executive Director of Virginia Civics and Deputy Director of the Center for the Constitution at James Madison's Montpelier, where she worked to deepen public understanding of constitutional democracy and inspire meaningful civic participation.
}

Subscribe to Lawfare