Armed Conflict

Lawfare Daily: Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, and the Short War Illusion

Natalie K. Orpett, Dara Massicot, Ariane Tabatabai, Julia Curlee, Jen Patja
Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 7:00 AM

Dispelling the "Short War Illusion."

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Some countries are susceptible to believing that with the right military strategy, they can accomplish their goals with a quick war. It's called the "Short War Illusion," and as the term suggests, it rarely works out as planned. That includes the two major conflicts currently underway in Ukraine and Iran. And it could include a potential conflict in Taiwan.

On today's podcast, Executive Editor Natalie Orpett speaks with Dara Massicot, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia & Eurasia Program; Ariane Tabatabai, Vice President at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a contributing editor at Lawfare, and Julia Curlee, Lawfare Public Service Fellow and 25-year veteran of the CIA. They discuss how the short war illusion is playing out today and how it could play out in a future conflict between China and Taiwan—a topic Julia considered in her recent piece in Lawfare, “The Short-War Illusion: What Iran Teaches Beijing About Taiwan.”

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Natalie K. Orpett

Natalie K. Orpett

nkorpett
nkorpett.bsky.social
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Natalie Orpett is the executive editor of Lawfare and deputy general counsel of the Lawfare Institute. She was previously an attorney at the law firm Jenner & Block, where she focused on investigations and government controversies, and also maintained an active pro bono practice. She served as civilian counsel to a defendant in the Guantanamo Military Commissions for more than eight years.
Dara Massicot

Dara Massicot

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Dara Massicot is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her work focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia.
Ariane Tabatabai

Ariane Tabatabai

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Ariane Tabatabai is the Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a contributing editor at Lawfare. Previously, she served in a number of roles in the U.S. Department of State and Department of Defense, including as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Education and Training. She is the author of No Conquest, No Defeat and co-author of Triple Axis – Iran’s Relations with Russia and China.
Julia Curlee

Julia Curlee

@juliacurlee.bsky.social
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Julia Curlee is a Public Service Fellow at Lawfare and a former CIA analyst with twenty-five years of experience in national security. She served as an NSC director in the Biden and second Trump White Houses and as a PDB briefer to the Vice President. She completed multiple tours in the Middle East and South Asia and served in CIA's China Mission Center. She holds master's degrees from the National War College and American University. The opinions presented here are her own and not those of the U.S. government.
Jen Patja

Jen Patja

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Jen Patja is the editor of the Lawfare Podcast and Rational Security, and serves as Lawfare’s Director of Audience Engagement. Previously, she was Co-Executive Director of Virginia Civics and Deputy Director of the Center for the Constitution at James Madison's Montpelier, where she worked to deepen public understanding of constitutional democracy and inspire meaningful civic participation.
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