Rational Security: The "Snifting Up to Boston" Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Editor in Chief Benjamin Wittes; Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai; and Contributing Editor and Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace Joel Braunold, to talk through the week’s big international news stories, including:
“Pick Me, Bibi, One More Time.” Israelis head to the polls next Tuesday, October 27, in an election widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—held just weeks after the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks, which Netanyahu has steadfastly refused to submit to an independent state commission of inquiry. Polls show his Likud trailing former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party, with neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition anywhere near the 61 seats needed to govern. Netanyahu has scrambled for a late boost, including by securing a “Complete and Total Endorsement” from President Trump, who suggested that if Israelis choose anyone else, he may not be inclined to “finish the job” against Iran. Is this finally the end of the Netanyahu era? And what would a new government—or a hung Knesset—mean for Israel’s wars and its relationship with Washington?
“Crude Awakening.” U.S.-Ukraine relations have hit perhaps their lowest point of the second Trump administration. In the aftermath of President Trump’s deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin easing U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel exports, Trump told Ukraine it had “better damn well stop” striking Russian oil refineries and even called on Ukrainians to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv, meanwhile, says U.S. intelligence sharing was briefly cut off and its Starlink access throttled—just as Russia launched some of its largest drone barrages of the war. Ukraine initially respected Trump’s call to pause attacks on Russia’s diesel refineries but, after Russia did not reciprocate, resumed long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Now Putin is reportedly floating a summit next month with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to decide Ukraine’s fate—without Zelensky at the table. Is Trump actively switching sides? And can Ukraine sustain its momentum on the battlefield if Washington keeps pulling the rug out from under it?
“French Toast.” France is reeling after a weekend of some of the worst unrest it has seen in years. What began in mid-September as student protests over overcrowded classrooms and teacher shortages has snowballed into a nationwide movement against the rising cost of living, joined by unions, farmers, and veterans of the “Yellow Vest” movement. On Saturday, more than half a million people marched across the country—before the day degenerated into rioting, looting, and arson, with roughly 1,800 people ultimately getting arrested. President Emmanuel Macron has blamed far-left “insurrectionist elements,” while his would-be successors are already trading blame with an eye on next spring’s presidential election – one in which Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally is currently the frontrunner. What’s driving the unrest? And who stands to benefit politically as France heads toward 2027?
In object lessons, Ben issues an enlightened apology to our neighbors to the north. Ari is sailing through her free time with Sleeping Gods. Scott is teaching his kids how to kick it old school in a new way. And Joel, somehow, in a way only Joel can, finds a patriotic message in this age-old battle for devotees and how you spend your weekends.
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