Today's Headlines and Commentary

Russia has resumed airstrikes on rebel-held Aleppo, the AP reports. The renewed operation marks the end of a month-long, self-imposed moratorium on striking the city. Russia and Syria hoped to pressure civilians and rebels to flee the city during that time, but nobody left despite repeated threats to renew the offensive. This Sunday, the Syrian regime sent a final warning via text message to Aleppo’s residents that a “strategically planned assault using high precision weapons occurs within 24 hours,” CNN tells us.

Russia’s Admiral Kuznetsov carrier made its combat debut in the renewed offensive, the Washington Post notes. It contributed cruise missiles and its Su-33 aircraft, adding new firepower to the Russian arsenal after its recent arrival off the Syrian coast.

The Russian and Syrian emphasis on an air campaign reflects their difficulties in defeating the rebels on the ground, the Wall Street Journal comments. While government forces have greater military capabilities, the rebels are far more adept at fighting in urban terrain. Russia and Syria are relying on air strikes to bomb the city into submission without investing massive manpower—which they largely do not have—into a ground campaign. The lines of control have not moved significantly despite offensives and counteroffensives from both sides. The most recent of these fruitless attempts has been the rebel effort to break through government positions in western Aleppo to resupply the besieged eastern districts.

While Russia denied involvement in the renewed strikes on Aleppo, Syrian state media claimed responsibility for attacks on the insurgents, the Guardian reports. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu instead focused on a “major operation” underway against militants in the Idlib and Homs provinces, the AP writes. He claimed that every target was legitimate and vetted by Russian intelligence, particularly emphasizing strikes on facilities producing chemical weapons. Reuters tells us that this is not entirely true—three hospitals have been attacked in the past day alone.

Turkish-backed rebels are closing in on al-Bab, a Syrian city held by the Islamic State, Reuters notes. Turkey has focused on this northern city as a key priority in clearing the Islamic State from the areas close to the Syrian-Turkish border. Once the operation is complete, Turkey has vowed to turn its attention to the Kurdish fighters who control territory in northern Syria.

Coalition forces in the Mosul offensive—now in its fifth week—are making slow progress as they continue to push farther into the city’s eastern districts, Reuters reports. The Islamic State is making use of the dense urban terrain and tactics like suicide bombers to counter the coalition's advance. The Iraqi security forces have recaptured “over a third of the eastern half of the city,” but they must remain cautious of operating around the civilian environment, the Post tells us. Militants are executing Mosul residents to deter them from cooperating with the government troops. The Post profiles a resident’s escape from one of these mass executions. At the same time, Human Rights Watch has accused Iraqi government fighters of mutilating corpses and killing one Islamic State captive.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced plans for an imminent ceasefire and the establishment of a unity government in Yemen, Reuters reports. Officials from the Hadi government disputed Kerry’s statement, claiming they had not been consulted about a ceasefire. Kerry claims that the Gulf states propping up the Hadi government, most notably Saudi Arabia, are on board with the plans to end the fighting.

An ICC prosecutor believes there is evidence of U.S. war crimes in Afghanistan, the New York Times writes. The court is considering opening an investigation into CIA and military treatment—particularly torture—of detainees in the war’s early years. The move comes after widespread criticism that the ICC disproportionately targets Africans for prosecution. The United States is not a member of the ICC, but Afghanistan’s membership would allow the investigation to proceed because the alleged crimes happened in Afghan territory.

Cross-border shelling continues across the Line of Control dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan, the AP tells us. Pakistan claims India has forced thousands of Pakistani citizens to flee for their own safety. The accusation follows the death of seven Pakistani soldiers from Indian shelling yesterday. An Indian military officer countered that Pakistan has breached a ceasefire agreement dating to 2003 and that its forces had entered into Indian territory earlier today.

An Egyptian court overturned former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi’s death sentence, the Times reports. The deposed, democratically-elected leader still has several life sentences from charges of espionage and killing protesters, but he was among six Muslim Brotherhood leaders to have their death sentences annulled. The decision likely has political roots in the al-Sisi government’s fears that following through with the executions would prompt unrest.

Russian authorities arrested a member of Putin’s inner circle, Alexei Ulyukayev, on charges of taking a $2 million bribe. There are a number of oddities in the case. First, a Russian minister has not been arrested in office for 63 years. Second, officials claim Putin knew about the investigation for months but let business continue as usual. Finally, Ulyukayev seems to have made a bizarre move in trying to extort a bribe from one of the most powerful people in Russia. The Post has more.

German authorities cracked down on a Muslim organization known as True Religion, the Post notes. German officials allege that the group has been recruiting foreign fighters for the Islamic State. Police raided 60 cities and 190 mosques in the operation, and the government announced plans to ban the group from Germany. The move comes amid a broader German campaign of counterterror stings over the past year as the country struggles to keep track of potential threats in the massive influx of migrants and refugees from the Middle East.

The United States and the Philippines are moving forward with plans for an annual combat exercise tomorrow, the Post writes. The decision follows Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s threats to cancel bilateral military exercises with the United States and to pivot toward greater cooperation with China. The exercise, however, will omit live-fire drills.

The incoming administration is having difficulty filling key national security positions, Buzzfeed reports. Experienced national security workers are nervous about accepting positions in an already politically toxic administration, a sign that bodes ill for the work of transitioning between the Obama and Trump administrations in the months ahead.

Former CIA and NSA director Michael Hayden discusses the upcoming relationship between the intelligence community and the Trump administration for the Post. Hayden expresses concerns that Trump will privilege his pre-existing beliefs over new evidence. He calls for the U.S. intelligence community to continue presenting a fact-based depiction of the world, to understand how best to communicate that depiction to the next president, and to stand its ground when it reaches unwelcome conclusions.

ICYMI: This Weekend, on Lawfare

Quinta Jurecic examined how Trump’s apparent lack of moral awareness will affect his administration’s policies.

Dan Byman drew lessons from past eras of counterterrorism policies.

Will McCants argued that Trump’s misdiagnosis of the causes of terrorism will lead to the wrong prescriptions.

Geoffrey Corn commented on Trump’s failure to understand the importance of legitimacy in U.S. operations.

J. Dana Stuster reset the Middle East Ticker with analysis on Mosul, Egypt, Turkey, and Trump.

Ingrid Wuerth predicted that we are moving into a “post-human rights era” where the power of international human rights law is on the decline.

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