Today's Headlines and Commentary

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) unveiled a massive omnibus tax and spending package late last night, Politico reports. The full text, totalling over 2000 pages, includes $1.149 trillion in spending and several hundred billion in tax breaks. The agreement includes provisions to reform the Visa Waiver Program, does not include any new restrictions on gun purchases, and provides $514.1 billion in base defense funding with an additional $58.6 billion going into the Overseas Contingency Operations fund. $111 billion will go to new equipment and upgrades, and all services will get additional F-35 Joint-Strike fighters. Finally, the agreement prohibits funding for the transfer of Guantanamo detainees to the United States and prohibits funding to modify or acquire any facility in the United States to house Guantanamo detainees. You can find the Senate Appropriations Committee summary of DOD appropriations here, and the House version here.

The Hill shares that the omnibus also includes the “long-delayed” Cyber Information Sharing Act, which can be found on page 1728 of the agreement. Privacy and digital rights organizations have accused lawmakers of “trying to avoid a transparent debate” on the bill by including it in the omnibus. For you wonks, the full text of the legislation is available here.

As the administration ramps up its efforts against the Islamic State, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter arrived in Iraq today, meeting with Iraqi leaders and U.S. commanders in a “visit aimed at broadening U.S. assistance to Iraq.” Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi has been under pressure from Shia politicians who do not want an expansion of American military role in the country. Yet Carter stressed that any U.S. action in Iraq would be done in conjunction with the Iraqi government and that U.S. forces would not violate Iraqi sovereignty. Reflecting on Abadi’s hesitancy to accept U.S. assistance, the leader of U.S.-led coalition operations in Iraq and Syria, Lt. Gen. Sean B. MacFarland, said that it is "hard to inflict support on somebody.” Indeed.

Throughout his visit to the region, Secretary Carter also intends to urge “the rest of the world to step up” in the global effort against ISIS. In a speech to U.S. and allied forces at Incirlik airbase in Turkey, Carter suggested that “some of the Gulf countries could make very important contributions to encouraging and assisting Sunni communities subjected to ISIL rule to resist ISIL rule.”

Foreign Policy tells us that the Islamic State has “more than $2 trillion in assets under its control, with an annual income of $2.9 billion.” Despite the uptick in military action against the group, one expert suggested that “the overall situation of ISIL, as far as financing is concerned, has not significantly diminished” as the importance of various revenue sources shifts between the group’s black market antiquities sales, oil trade, and extortion of local communities. Meanwhile, Defense One writes that the United Nations “can dent [the Islamic State’s] oil revenues by [] limiting the routes that smugglers use to transport the oil to Turkey and the Kurdish regions” and by deterring “U.N. member states from importing the oil that is produced.”

A U.S. aircraft carrier is making its way to the Persian Gulf in order to aid the U.S. airstrikes against ISIS, the Hill tells us. According to a Navy official, “the USS Harry S. Truman is due to arrive in the Persian Gulf right around Christmas, where it will begin striking the terrorist group.”

France has launched cruise missiles against the Islamic State for the first time in its campaign against the group. Reuters writes that “SCALP long-range missiles were launched from French fighter jets based in the United Arab Emirates and Jordan as part of a bombing raid that targeted a command center, training site and logistics depot in western Iraq on the border with Syria.”

After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the discussions had produced some common ground. The Associated Press reports that Kerry “accepted Russia's long-standing demand that President Bashar Assad's future be determined by his own people, as Washington and Moscow edged toward putting aside years of disagreement over how to end Syria's civil war.” He added that the goal moving forward would be to create a peace process that would allow the Syrian people to make “decisions for the future of Syria.” The Washington Post suggests that “the talks broke little new ground and the two sides remain divided over how a lasting political settlement will be found to the conflict in Syria and what will be the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.” But Kerry and his counterpart agreed that the Islamic State and the Nusra Front “would be included on a list of terrorist organizations that will be barred from the negotiations and will continue to be targeted by airstrikes.”

The New York Times writes that Putin's "gambit in Syria is proving to be a double-edged sword," coming at the expense of "Russian lives, resources, a dangerous clash with Turkey and other costs that could grow significantly in the months ahead." While that may be true, the Russian effort in Syria has also provided Russia with testing grounds for new military technology. The Daily Beast sheds light on Russia’s use of space power in its attacks in Syria.

Following Turkey’s decision to shoot down a Russian warplane after it crossed into Turkish airspace last month, Russia has called on Turkey to provide compensation for the downed jet.

Syrian forces have captured a strategic mountain in Latakia. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that the regime forces were aided by Hezbollah troops. The Associated Press reports that the victory could prove significant, as "capturing the mountains of Latakia would reduce threats to the coast — a key stronghold of President Bashar Assad."

Saudi Arabia announced an anti-terror coalition comprised of 34 Muslim countries yesterday, amid concern that the Arab kingdom has not done enough to aid in Western efforts against terrorism. The Wall Street Journal says that “it remains unclear what the Sunni kingdom is asking the other countries to do,” and other sources have called into question whether Saudi Arabia has consulted with the listed countries at all.

Upon hearing about the coalition, Pakistani foreign minister Aizaz Chaudhry expressed surprise that Pakistan had been named as part of the coalition given that there had been no discussion of such a coalition beforehand. The Pakistani news source Dawn writes that “the Saudi government surprised many countries by announcing that it had forged a coalition for coordinating and supporting military operations against terrorism in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt and Afghanistan,” noting that “this is not the first time that Saudi Arabia has named Pakistan as part of its military alliances without Islamabad’s knowledge and consent.”

Two men were arrested at an Austrian refugee center in Salzburg in connection with the Paris attacks. Local news sources suggested that the men had come into contact with the Paris attackers in Austria. Also in connection to the Paris attacks, three suspects are being questioned by French authorities, two of whom are suspected of “supplying the guns used in the deadly siege of a kosher supermarket in January.” One of the detained suspects is a middle-aged Frenchman who was “already in detention for his role in an arms trafficking ring” and “had a history with France’s far right,” the New York Times tells us.

Meanwhile in Germany, an Islamic extremist was arrested for providing aid to the Army of Emigrants and Helpers and also to the Islamic State. The German citizen, Sven Lau, is accused of serving as a contact person and facilitator for those seeking to travel to Syria to join the Islamic State.

Reflecting on the recent success of jihadist terror attacks in the West, the New York Times writes that the “era of jihadi amateurism might be over.”

Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson suggested that there are “‘certain legal limits’ that constrain federal officials from scrutinizing the social media histories of foreigners trying to enter the United States,” Politico tells us. Responding to questions that have arisen since media outlets reported that the female suspect in the San Bernardino shooting had posted messages expressing a desire to commit jihad, Johnson maintained when examining social media accounts, “we are dealing with private communications and things for which there is an expectation of privacy.”

Yet there may be another twist in the story, as FBI Director James Comey said today that the attackers in San Bernardino were not part of a terrorist cell, and while they had expressed support for “jihad and martyrdom,” they only did so in private communications and never publicly on social media. Those comments seem to contradict the narrative that arose immediately out of the attacks when several media sources reported that federal authorities had confirmed the couple had expressed their support for the Islamic State online.

A new report from Amnesty International accuses Turkey of mistreating migrants and asylum seekers, suggesting that Turkey sent back scores of refugees to war zones. According to the BBC, “Amnesty blames the EU's ‘recklessness’” and has called for the suspension of the recently agreed upon “Action Plan” through which Turkey is expected to help to mitigate the refugee crisis facing Europe in exchange for economic aid and other incentives.

Over in Germany, recently admitted Syrian refugees are flocking to Wuppertal, “a faded rust-belt city looking for new vitality,” where “migrants are finding abundant housing and ample help from immigrants who came before.” Though some officials have expressed concern that the refugees could be targets for Islamists seeking to radicalize them, local government officials hope that they can “give a much-needed economic boost to a city that has lost some of its past industrial base,” the Wall Street Journal tells us.

The Associated Press writes that “violence in Afghanistan is on the rise, according to a new Pentagon report to Congress that says the Taliban was emboldened by the reduced U.S. military role and can be expected to build momentum from their 2015 attack strategy.” Stars and Stripes has more on the Pentagon’s report.

The New York Times highlights the continued support for the Taliban in the country. When polled to evaluate the impact of American aid and assistance projects across the country, Afghan “villagers believed that the projects would not have been allowed to take place without the Taliban’s approval, and so their support for the Taliban, rather than for the United States or the Afghan government, actually increased because of the aid.”

Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar suggested that India would be willing to join the fight against the Islamic State “under a U.N. flag” if the United Nations adopted a resolution authorizing such a mission.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors voted unanimously to “close its decade-long investigation into the work it suspected Iran of conducting to design a nuclear weapon." The U.N. agency will instead “move ahead with fulfilling the deal signed in July to limit Iran’s production of atomic material for at least 15 years.”

Even as Iran appears to comply the nuclear agreements, a United Nations panel of experts found that Iran violated a Security Council resolution when it tested a new ballistic missile in October, the Wall Street Journal reports. The missile tests call into question the intentions of hard-line politicians in Iran and could complicate the lifting of “sanctions on Iran from the U.N. and individual countries over its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.”

In Yemen, fighting continues, marring the ceasefire that took effect yesterday as warring parties began U.N. mediated peace talks. The Associated Press tells us that clashes broke out between fighters from both sides “along several front lines in Yemen, claiming at least 42 lives and undermining a day-old ceasefire and peace talks between the internationally recognized government and Shiite rebels.” Yemeni tribal residents said that Saudi-led strikes had hit Houthi targets and "repeatedly violated the ceasefire." Despite the low expectations for the peace talks, the BBC reports that the warring parties have swapped hundreds of prisoners, including “360 members of the rebel Houthi movement and 265 civilians and pro-government fighters.”

A group of armed gunmen abducted as many as 27 Qatari hunters from their camp in southern Iraq near the border with Saudi Arabia. Iraq’s Interior Ministry stated that police were searching the area and speculated that the abduction was "to achieve political and media goals." The BBC tells us that the attack took place in a tribal region with a strong Shia presence and that the “Shia political parties which dominate the Iraqi government are highly critical of Qatar's role in supporting Sunni rebels in Syria.”

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that “Turkey will establish a military base in Qatar as part of a defence agreement aimed at helping them confront ‘common enemies.’” The base will be established as part of an agreement signed in June.

The New York Times writes that the U.S. State Department has called on Nigeria to investigate “reports of a large number of deaths over the weekend in clashes between the military and a Shiite Muslim sect.” The sect claimed that the military killed as many as 1000 of its members. The Nigerian military initially announced having killed 7 militants after they “provoked the clash by blocking a convoy carrying the army’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Yusuf Buratai” in a move that they believed endangered his life. The Nigerian government has sent officials to the region in hopes of defusing tensions.

In Burundi, clashes have left at least 87 people dead in what the Washington Post suggests could be a resurgence of ethnic violence. Unrest began in April when President Pierre Nkurunziza said he would run for a third term, a move that would violate both the Burundi constitution and the agreement that ended the country's civil war. The Post notes that “the current political impasse has claimed over 600 lives since the beginning of the year, and forced over 220,000 Burundians to flee their homes.”

The Commander of the United States Pacific Fleet, Adm. Scott H. Swift, suggested yesterday that China had diminished safety in the South China Sea by establishing "so-called military zones" around its artificial islands.

A day after Los Angeles and New York received threats targeting the both cities’ public schools, officials have revealed that the threats were a hoax. While New York dismissed the threat as a fake, L.A. closed down all 900 schools in the district, highlighting the cities’ massively different responses. The Los Angeles Times and the New York Times both detail their respective cities’ responses.

Prior to the 5th Republican Presidential debate in Las Vegas yesterday, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took on her potential rivals, outlining her national security strategy for countering violent extremism and the Islamic State. Mrs. Clinton covered a number of hot-button topics, including rules that would prevent people on the no-fly list from purchasing weapons. Yet perhaps her most interesting remarks came when discussing the role of technology companies in battling ISIS online, when she characterized encryption as a “tough problem” to be solved. Her comments come as several former national security officials are “urging that the government embrace the move to strong encryption.”

In her address, Mrs. Clinton also slammed her Republican opponents, saying that “promising to carpet-bomb until the desert glows doesn’t make you sound strong. It makes you sound like you’re in over your head.”

In Politico, Michael Crowley describes how the GOP debate last night, which featured flare ups between Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), exposes a rift in the party’s position on foreign policy, particularly about how involved the United States should be in toppling Middle East dictators.

Parting Shot: Foreign Policy chronicles Secretary of State John Kerry’s all-too-frequent run-ins with Dunkin Donuts. But seriously, what else would you want after a long, cold day of diplomacy in Moscow?

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Ben shared a few thoughts on Israeli targeting procedures and the concept of proportionality.

Aaron Zelin brought us the latest edition of the Jihadology Podcast, which features Aymenn al-Tamini on the Islamic State’s finances and economic situation.

Paul Rosenzweig noted that the idea that the Visa Waiver Program is “inherently a security risk” is “nonsense.”

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