Armed Conflict

Lawfare Daily: Escalate to What End? Trump's Plan for the Iran War After the Midterms

Julia Curlee, Cole Bucy, Nate Swanson, Ariane Tabatabai
Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 8:39 AM
Discussing the Iran war eight months in.
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Former NSC staffers Cole Bucy and Nate Swanson join Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ari Tabatabai and Lawfare Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee to discuss the Iran war eight months in and the administration's likely approach after the midterms.

Cole and Nate's new piece in Foreign Policy, "Trump Unleashed" outlines why the president might escalate against Iran and why none of his options is likely to get him what he wants. Ari and Julia also discuss their piece in Foreign Policy, "How Could Iran Happen? An Autopsy," examining how the president's war on the "Deep State" led to this debacle in the Middle East.

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Julia Curlee

Julia Curlee

@juliacurlee.bsky.social
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Julia Curlee is a Public Service Fellow at Lawfare and a former CIA analyst with twenty-five years of experience in national security. She served as an NSC director in the Biden and second Trump White Houses and as a PDB briefer to the Vice President. She completed multiple tours in the Middle East and South Asia and served in CIA's China Mission Center. She holds master's degrees from the National War College and American University. The opinions presented here are her own and not those of the U.S. government.
Cole Bucy

Cole Bucy

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Cole Bucy is a former CIA analyst and served as director for Iran on the U.S. National Security Council from 2015 to 2016.
Nate Swanson

Nate Swanson

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Nate Swanson is a resident senior fellow and director of the Iran Strategy Project with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.
Ariane Tabatabai

Ariane Tabatabai

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Ariane Tabatabai is the Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a contributing editor at Lawfare. Previously, she served in a number of roles in the U.S. Department of State and Department of Defense, including as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Education and Training. She is the author of "No Conquest" and "No Defeat" and co-author of "Triple Axis – Iran’s Relations with Russia and China."

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