Armed Conflict

Lawfare Daily: Ukraine’s Asymmetric Blueprint in the Black Sea

Katsiaryna Shmatsina, Catarina Buchatskiy, Jen Patja
Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 7:00 AM
How is Ukraine using drones in its maritime operations in the Black Sea?
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At the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia held clear naval superiority in the Black Sea. Over the course of the war, Ukraine has developed an asymmetric maritime strategy using unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), achieving strategic effects against a superior naval force.

Ukraine has largely shifted from importing complete drone systems to assembling them domestically using foreign components, with China remaining a key supplier of many critical parts. What is more, Ukraine is now preparing to export its drones internationally.

In this episode, Katsiaryna Shmatsina, Eurasia Fellow at Lawfare, sits down with Cat Buchatskiy, the Director of Analytics at the Snake Island Institute, to discuss Ukraine’s maritime operations in the Black Sea, the use of drones, and the supply chains behind them. Cat leads a team of analysts producing frontline-validated research on modern warfare, defense innovation, and U.S.-Ukraine security cooperation. 

Read more from the Snake Island Institute on Ukraine's Black Sea’s Asymmetric Blueprint and the transformation of a once-nascent drone industry into a critical pillar of national defense.

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Katsiaryna Shmatsina

Katsiaryna Shmatsina

@katiebelarus.bsky.social
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Katsiaryna Shmatsina is a Eurasia fellow at Lawfare, specializing in Belarus, Russia, and international security. She is a Belarusian-trained lawyer turned political analyst with over a decade of experience in Belarusian and European think tanks, serving as a researcher and political consultant. Among other roles, she was a Rethink.CEE Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. and worked with the International Republican Institute and the American Bar Association. She is currently pursuing her doctoral degree at Virginia Tech in Washington, D.C. Shmatsina is among 20 Belarusian scholars prosecuted in absentia by the Lukashenka regime in a politically motivated trial recognized by human rights groups, the Council of Europe, and the U.S. State Department. She is also listed on Russia’s federal wanted list.
Catarina Buchatskiy

Catarina Buchatskiy

catbuchatskiy
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Catarina Buchatskiy is the co-founder of the Shadows Project and an International Security student at Stanford University.
Jen Patja

Jen Patja

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Jen Patja is the editor of the Lawfare Podcast and Rational Security, and serves as Lawfare’s Director of Audience Engagement. Previously, she was Co-Executive Director of Virginia Civics and Deputy Director of the Center for the Constitution at James Madison's Montpelier, where she worked to deepen public understanding of constitutional democracy and inspire meaningful civic participation.
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