Today's Headlines and Commentary

President Obama’s national security aides and top military advisers are pressing him to approve military force in order to counter Islamic State militants that analysts say are forming a new safe haven in Libya. The Washington Post today reports that the Obama administration, wary of opening a new front against the Islamic State in yet another Muslim country, is for the moment redoubling its efforts to create a “unity government” in Libya.

However, the Military Times tells us that a new intelligence assessment shows that while the Islamic State’s forces are declining in Iraq and Syria, they are growing rapidly in Libya, spurred by renewed chaos in that country. According to a U.S. defense official, the exact reasons for the decline in Iraq and Syria are unclear, but may include battlefield deaths, the impact of drone strikes, desertions, and recruiting problems.

As pressure mounts along the north African coast, the Economist writes that the odds of another intervention in Libya are steadily increasing. The same conditions that have left Libya a fertile territory for the Islamic State are also making it hard to plan an intervention that would succeed, as the country lacks a central governing authority with the capability to unite rival rebel militias. The Economist has more on the new front against the Islamic State in Libya here.

Adding to the pressure on President Obama, Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA), who serves on the House Intelligence Committee, has called for the United States to increase its intelligence and military operations against the Islamic State’s leaders in Libya. Representative Schiff stated that the Obama administration should “be proactive in Libya now to keep ISIS from getting a bigger foothold” in order to avoid “the long term multi-year nightmare” we’ve seen in Iraq and Syria. But, even as Obama considers action in Libya, the Post writes that one thing is clear: large numbers of American ground troops are not on the table.

According to the Islamic State-linked media organization, Amaq News Agency, the terrorist group is increasingly turning to suicide attacks due to battlefield setbacks in Iraq and Syria. Vocativ shares that the Amaq News Agency reported 85 Islamic State suicide attacks in January, nearly three times the 29 suicide attacks the pseudo-state used in September 2015.

In another blow to the militant group, Agence France-Presse reports that the Islamic State just lost a training camp in Syria. In a joint raid with coalition forces, France destroyed the Islamic State’s training camp located north of Aleppo on Monday.

Saudi Arabia is all in for sending ground troops to Syria to fight the Islamic State, the Guardian and Newsweek tell us. Saudi Arabia’s military spokesman Brigadier General Ahmed al-Asiri stated during an interview that “ the kingdom is ready to participate in any ground operations that the coalition (against ISIS) may agree to carry out in Syria.” Other sources told the Guardian that thousands of special forces could be deployed, most likely in coordination with Turkey. Saudi Arabia is already engaged in one proxy war with Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen.

The Post reports that Syrian rebels are losing the city of Aleppo and perhaps the war too. The rebels fought for their survival in Aleppo yesterday as Russia continued it blitz of airstrikes in the city. The offensive cut a vital rebel supply route between the city and the Turkish border, and sent a new wave of refugees fleeing towards that same border. The Post writes that the Russian-backed military campaign against rebel positions in Aleppo coincided with the failure of the Syrian peace talks in Geneva, and also helped reinforce the opposition's view that Russia and Assad’s forces are more interested in a military victory against the rebels than negotiating peace.

During his testimony before the House Armed Services Committee yesterday, Army General John Campbell, the United States’ top commander in Afghanistan, stated that “Afghanistan is at an inflection point” and that 2016 could be “no better and possibly worse than 2015” if adjustments are not made. General Campbell also urged that the United States “should not waver in Afghanistan.” CNN has more.

The Associated Press tells us that Taliban fighters are “closing ranks” around their new leader after months of infighting that followed the death of the group’s former leader, Mullah Omar. The group’s renewed unity, if true, could allow the insurgents to speak with one voice, rather than a splintered one, in hopes of peace talks with the Afghan government. However, the AP shares that it might also lead to a renewed strength on the battlefield.

Foreign Policy has the latest on the snazzy new tools that nuclear inspectors wil use to catch Iran if it cheats on the nuclear agreement. The International Atomic Energy Agency has more tools than ever to ensure Iran does not cheat, but there is a catch: Iran decides which tools are used and where. Check out the piece here.

The Telegraph tells us that Russia simulated a nuclear strike against Sweden. NATO confirmed the 2013 exercise, which saw a contingent of Russian aircrafts approach Swedish airspace after crossing the Gulf of Finland. The exercise was one of several mock nuclear attacks against NATO and its allies in recent years.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is pushing the Communist Party officials and state-run media to refer to him as China’s “core” leader. The new term certainly suggests his quest for dominance is not over, the Times writes. President Xi has demanded that Communist Party officials close ranks around him more tightly than ever and the reference to him as the “core” leader has already become a daily occurrence in China’s state-run media outlets. Christopher K. Johnson, an expert on Chinese politics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that “such sudden, unabashed references to Xi’s dominance in the leadership suggest he finally turned the page on crushing the cabal of senior officials who opposed his ascension and remains a man in a hurry when it comes to fully consolidating his political power.”

Today, as Reuters reports, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said that Islamic State militants have passed into Europe disguised as refugees. The statement comes a day after German security forces thwarted a potential Islamic State attack in Berlin. German fears have escalated ever since the Paris terrorist attack in November 2015. Yesterday, German forces arrested two men that were suspected of having links to the Islamic State, both of whom were allegedly planning an assault on the German capital.

Fox News tells us that there are at least 4o Americans, far more than previously reported, who have joined al Shabaab, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia. Dozens of the Americans have roots in Minnesota’s prominent Somali-American community. Al Shabaab is suspected of causing an explosion on a passenger jet over Somalia that killed one and caused an emergency landing this week.

One of Boko Haram’s commanders has said that he knows where the abducted Chibok schoolgirls are located. In April 2014, the extremist group ambushed a school in north Nigeria and kidnapped 276 girls from their dormitories. The two-year hunt for them has so far yielded no results. It seems as though the girls are being used as a bargaining chip by Boko Haram, according to the commander interviewed by Vice News. The insurgent commander stated, “You want to know where they are? They are not with us. If we can get what we want, we know where they are, we will get them.”

In light of the month-long armed occupation of a federal wildlife reserve in Oregon, Julia Harte of Reuters reports that the U.S. Department of Justice is moving to implement legal changes designed to “combat what it sees as a rising threat from domestic anti-government extremists.” Assistant Attorney General John Carlin said in an interview that extremists groups like those present in Oregon are a “clear and present danger,” and given the disparity in tools available to prosecutors in cases of domestic terrorism, his team is taking a look at “potential legal improvements and enhancements to better combat those threats.”

The United States and the United Kingdom have initiated negotiations on an agreement that would allow British authorities to go directly to American technology firms with a wiretap order for the online chats of British suspects in counterterrorism investigations. U.K. investigators, the Post writes, would also be able to serve orders to obtain stored data. A final agreement between the U.S. and U.K. would require congressional imprimatur through amendments to the Wiretap Act and the Stored Communications Act. Although disputed by a number of leading privacy groups, the Post reports that senior Obama administration officials have determined the United Kingdom’s rules for data requests have “robust protections” for privacy.

Parting Shot: Republicans who want to go to Iran? That’s the news from the Hill today, as “a trio of hawkish House Republicans say that they want to visit Iran later this month,” noting—presumably with tongues in cheeks—that they “look forward to seeing Iranian democracy in action.” It is unclear if they will have the snazzy new tools that Foreign Policy writes about to catch Iran cheating on the nuclear deal though.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Ben shared this week’s edition of Rational Security: The “Deck Chairs on the Titanic” edition.

Nick Weaver wrote a response to Ben’s “modest proposal to backdoor encryption,” arguing that a backdoor by any other name is still a backdoor.

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