Today's Headlines and Commentary

Headlines across the spectrum today suggest that besieged in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, ISIS is on the retreat.

First in Syria: U.S.-backed forces in Syria have captured the last route into Manbij, an Islamic State stronghold north of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. The move marks the Syrian Democratic Forces’ complete encirclement of the city, and its liberation would be one of the biggest blows delivered to ISIS in Syria since the pseudo-caliphate’s loss of Tal Abyad. Both U.S. special forces and U.S. air strikes assisted the Syrian forces, delivering a total of 105 airstrikes so far. Reuters has more on the battle, while across the border yesterday, Iraqi special forces pushed deeper into Fallujah, one of the group’s last holdouts in Anbar province.

And in Libya, forces loyal to the U.N.-backed government exceeded expectations, making dramatic inroads into the local ISIS capital of Sirte. ISIS fighters were seen fleeing the city, cutting their hair and beards in order to blend in with civilians.

Prior to the match on Fallujah, VICE News journalists and videographers embedded themselves with Iraq’s Golden Division, the country’s special forces, as they launched an offensive against the Islamic State in the western province of Anbar. The 30-minute report is graphic, but documents the significant strides Iraqi security forces have made in recent weeks to reclaim the territory. The New York Times has more on the road to Fallujah here.

Despite the gains anti-Islamic State forces have made in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, the Washington Post notes that the Iraqi army is better characterized by fragility than strength, even though the United States has provided more than $1.6 billion in aid. Damning the country’s security force with faint praise, General Sean MacFarland is quoted saying: “How good does it have to be? It has to be better than the enemy. Are they better than the enemy? Yes, they are.”

Recommended long read: In an emotionally charged profile of a woman whose car was bombed while it carried three other women and two children, the Washington Post’s Greg Jaffe and Loveday Morris underscore the collateral damage and moral ambiguity that intrinsically accompanies even the most surgical aspects of modern warfare.

As Syrian and Russian air strikes have escalated in recent days, Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, conceded that the time was not right for peace talks between the necessary parties, according to the Times. Instead, de Mistura called for another round of talks to begin in early August. The news came a day after Syrian airstrikes hit three hospitals in Aleppo including a pediatrics clinic run by the United Nations.

From the facts on the ground to the battle for hearts and minds. Defense One previews a new counterterrorism strategy that Michael Lumpkin, a former Navy SEAL, intends to implement as the director of the State Department’s Global Engagement Center in order to disrupt the recruiting initiatives of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State. Lumpkin said the GEC will target people who may be vulnerable to recruitment rather than those who have already joined the Islamic State. What’s different about this program from State’s earlier iteration, the Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications? The cash, mainly. The former program’s budget topped out at $5.4 million, while the GEC will receive $21.5 million next year.

The Post writes that a Kurdish militant group, dubbed the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, has taken responsibility for a car-bomb attack on police forces that killed at least 11 people. The bomb detonated in a central neighborhood of Istanbul that is popular with tourists. On Wednesday, in a move believed to be directed towards the pro-Kurdish opposition party, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed a bill lifting lawmakers’ immunity from prosecution. The Guardian has more details.

But while the conflict in Turkey grows more heated, key U.S. officials in the fight against the Islamic State are increasingly relying on Kurdish fighters in northern Syria. Not to many years ago, the United States avoided affiliation with the YPG in Syria due to its links to the Turkish PKK. Bloomberg tells us that the change in policy can partially be credited to a “soft-faced former English teacher” in Arlington, Virginia named Sinam Mohamed, who has become a key liaison between the U.S. government and Rojava, a loose federation of Kurdish-majority provinces in northern Syria.

The Wall Street Journal writes that President Obama has dipped his toe back in Afghan waters, figuratively speaking, as the president approved a request by top U.S. generals to deploy limited offensive air strikes against the Taliban. The president also loosened regulations allowing U.S. troops to accompany conventional Afghan soldiers on select missions for the purposes of providing advice and assistance in the field. These developments mark a reversal from roughly a year ago when U.S. soldiers were only permitted to accompany Afghan special forces. But one defense official stressed that the new policies did not reflect a change in the mission’s objectives: “This is not a blanket order to target the Taliban. Rather, this step is a doubling down on what has provided results in our existing...mission.”

AFP reveals that the Israeli army is temporarily banning Palestinians from entering Israel. An Israeli army spokesman told AFP that crossings from both Gaza and the West Bank would be closed for Palestinians in all cases barring a humanitarian or medical exception, even though the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has just begun. These measures were introduced after Palestinian gunmen shot four Israelis in Tel Aviv on Wednesday. According to Reuters, the United Nations warned that Israel’s decision to deny entry permits for Palestinians may constitute an instance of collective punishment, which is a violation of international law.

No warm welcome for the USS Porter, which arrived in the Black Sea port of Varna, Bulgaria on Tuesday for what the U.S. Navy called a routine deployment. Russia yesterday called the Porter’s presence an intentional act of provocation on the United States’ part, and warned of “retaliatory measures.” For more on this story, USA Today has us covered.

According to BBC, police in Bangladesh have detained roughly 900 people they say are tied to a series of deadly Islamist militant attacks across the country. In the last few years, almost 40 people, including bloggers, academics, gay rights activists, and religious minorities, have been killed in violent attacks. Many victims were hacked to death. Bangladeshi authorities have long denied allegations that the attacks were coordinated and executed by ISIS or al Qaeda-affiliated groups, and have subsequently done little to stop the violence, but Sunday’s killing of a counterterrorism officer’s wife may have spurred the government to greater action.

Belgian police arrested another suspect in connection with the March 22nd suicide bombings at Zaventem airport and Maalbeek metro station that killed 32 people, Agence-France Presse reports. The 31-year-old man, identified only as Ali E.H.A., was arrested for “participation in the activities of a terrorist group, terrorist murders, and attempted terrorist murders.” The arrest comes one day after a Belgian court approved the extradition to France of Mohamed Abrini---or “the man in the hat”---a key suspect in both the Brussels and Paris attacks.

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-TX) said yesterday that he would like to see a return of “the threat of torture” in the fight against terrorists. While not specifically endorsing a return to the CIA’s controversial enhanced interrogation program, he told reporters that the next president should “quite saying what we’re not going to do” because such statements “only simplify the enemy’s calculations.” The comments come after presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump argued earlier this year that “torture works,” suggesting that he would introduce new measures that were “much stronger.” The Post has more.

More today on Hillary Clinton’s private email server from the Wall Street Journal, which reports that “a series of emails between American diplomats in Islamabad and their superiors in Washington about whether to oppose specific drone strikes in Pakistan” lies at the center of the ongoing investigation. While the messages were sent over unclassified State Department channels, they were then forwarded from Clinton aides to her personal server. The emails did not specifically mention the CIA or the drone program, nor did they provide specific details about militant targets, but according to intelligence officials, they should have been transmitted over more secure government computer systems.

National Defense Magazine outlines Secretary of Defense Ash Carter’s “huge” new ideas to expand the Pentagon’s tech pipeline.

Parting Shot: A “glut of stolen data” is driving down the value of cybercriminal activities, says Brian Krebs, but even so, “it’s a good time to be a cybercriminal,” writes Josephine Wolff in an exploration of the new economics of cybercrime for the Atlantic. In the piece, which is well worth a read, she explains that the cheapness and ease of stealing valuable data is exactly why ransomware is now the most profitable form of cybercrime. Translation: you value your data more than anyone else now.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Kemal Kirişci urged the international community to partner with Turkey in combating the Syrian refugee crisis.

David Bosco highlighted the concerns of Serge Brammertz, the chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, that the region’s respect for international law is waning.

Ben Wittes tracked the 2016 presidential election and Hillary Clinton’s charge that Donald Trump can’t be trusted to protect U.S. national security in his Rational Security podcast.

Nora Ellingsen covered the conclusion of the first multi-defendant ISIL case in the United States and the developments in two other similar cases.

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