Today's Headlines and Commentary

After an investment of $500 million, an initial goal of training 5,400 Syrian rebel fighters a year, and a whopping 54 fighters successfully graduated this summer, the sum total of U.S.-trained rebels still on the ground in Syria is now… “four or five.” Yes, you read that correctly. Defense One’s Molly O’Toole reports on remarks on the new nadir of the U.S. train-and-equip program, made by Central Command's Gen. Lloyd Austin during the latter's testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee this morning.

Now that the program has reached rock bottom, perhaps there’s nowhere to go but up. Foreign Policy examines a new proposal to revamp the train-and-equip effort by sending American-trained soldiers into Syria to provide ground assistance to the U.S. air campaign.

Meanwhile, with Russian forces building up their presence in Syria, the White House is considering opening discussions with President Vladimir Putin on resolving the crisis. Deteriorating U.S. efforts and a stubbornly resistant Syrian regime may have finally eroded President Obama’s resistance to opening a line with the Kremlin on the issue, the New York Times writes. In the meantime, the Times also reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Putin next week to discuss the Russian buildup in Syria.

The AP tells us that French forces will begin conducting airstrikes against ISIS in Syria within the next few weeks. According to the Wall Street Journal, French participation in the anti-ISIS air campaign was spurred by intelligence reports indicating an increase in European ISIS recruits tasked with undertaking attacks within Europe.

With other coalition members increasingly in support of airstrikes in Syria, Australia launched its first airstrikes today against Islamic State targets. The attacks targeted an IS personnel carrier and a crude oil collection point. The BBC has the story.

In light of recent claims that the Islamic State has been using mustard gas, the BBC exposes the history of ISIS and al Qaeda's use of chemical weapons. Al Qaeda experimentation with chemical weapons may date back to as early as 1997.

The Times reports on the group of intelligence analysts who have accused senior officers of manipulating intelligence reports to present a more optimistic view of U.S. efforts against ISIS. The Pentagon’s inspector general is now investigating officers who supervise dozens of military and civilian analysts at United States Central Command to determine “whether there was any falsification, distortion, delay, suppression or improper modification of intelligence information.”

In an interview aired on several Russian media outlets earlier today, Syrian President Bashar al Assad praised Russian support for the regime and called on the United States to support his government in his fight against ISIS, the Washington Post tells us. Commenting on the violence that has led to displacement both within and outside of Syria, Assad blamed the West for causing the refugee crisis by “supporting terrorists.” Reuters has more.

With Hungary first closing its borders and now using water cannons and tear gas against refugee and migrant populations, Croatia has offered safe movement through its country, the BBC writes. The Times reports on the political climate surrounding the refugee and migrant crisis in Hungary and Croatia, and sheds light on the European legal framework affecting the crisis. With the principle of free movement throughout Europe’s Schengen Zone straining under the weight of massive migration, the “Dublin Regulation” meant to guide asylum entry into the European Union is facing a similar challenge.

Russia is blocking European efforts to pass a U.N. Security Council resolution that would grant military access to boats suspected of trafficking or smuggling humans, the Times writes. Fearing a similar outcome to the 2011 resolution that allowed military involvement in Libya for the protection of civilians, Russian officials feel the need to clearly define the limits of any resolution.

The Irish Times reports that EU justice and home affairs ministers met in an emergency meeting to discuss the migration crisis. The session came in the wake of failed discussions in Brussels; the United Nations’ High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres, expressed the need for Europe to act “together in order to grant protection to those who need protection.” In the same vein, German and Austrian leaders called for a European summit to resolve the crisis in a press conference yesterday.

Politico reflects on the European response to the refugee crisis, pointing out the dangers posed by instability within Europe as old hostilities and faultlines between countries and regions are brought to the surface.

The Yemeni government has reaffirmed its position that Houthi rebels must accept the U.N. resolution calling for the return of territory and the recognition of President Hadi’s government before any peace talks can proceed. Meanwhile, Al Arabiya News suggests that Yemen’s Vice President and Prime Minister Khaled Bahah have returned to Aden from exile in Riyadh.

As conflict in Jerusalem’s al Aqsa Mosque continues, Israel is escalating penalties for stone throwers, Al Jazeera reports. Reports of Israel’s rearrest of a former Palestinian prisoner, whose detention had been suspended last month due to his poor health following a hunger strike, are not likely to calm the tension. The Journal has the story.

Over at Foreign Policy, Stephen Walt highlights the spectrum of politicians and organizations that oppose the nuclear agreement with Iran and argues that their efforts aim to “keep US-Iranian relations trapped in a spiral of suspicion, demonization, and counterproductive rivalry.” In related news, The Hill notes Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN)’s prediction that the Senate will be able to override any presidential veto on potential legislation to extend U.S. sanctions on Iran, in violation of the nuclear accord.

The dust has settled on the Taliban’s leadership struggle, at least according to Mullah Omar’s official successor Mullah Akhtar Mansour. The Journal reports on the implications that this announcement could have on peace talks with the government in Kabul. The Guardian adds that “key figures from the family of the late founder, Mullah Omar, had sworn allegiance to the new leader” and questions whether or not this solidification of leadership will be enough to stem defection from the Taliban.

As the Kremlin continues to deny the involvement of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Daily Beast talks about the secretive manner in which military deaths of soldiers allegedly killed in Ukraine are treated. Families of deceased Russian troops are being silenced and threatened with loss of military benefits if they talk to the press.

The BBC notifies us that Russia and Angola have rejected the U.N. Security Council’s efforts to impose sanctions against South Sudanese army chief Paul Malong and rebel chief Johnson Olony. The United States proposed an asset ban and travel freeze on the two individuals for their role in the ongoing violent conflict in South Sudan.

Nigerian troops have rescued “dozens” of women and children in the process of clearing Boko Haram camps in the country’s northeastern Borno State, Premium Times reports. Numerous Boko Haram militants surrendered in the process. Meanwhile, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari announced that his government has begun negotiations with the extremist group over the recovery of the 200 girls seized in a raid on the village of Chibok last year.

The United Nations has called for an international war crimes tribunal to address atrocities committed during the Sri Lankan civil war, the Journal writes. A new report by the U.N. Human Rights Council describes “egregious violations” of international law and suggests that Sri Lanka’s domestic court system is unequipped to handle the investigation.

A day after North Korea announced planned improvements to its nuclear program, the United States has chastised the DPRK to refrain from “irresponsible provocations.” The BBC has more.

Despite widespread protests, recently reelected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is set to move forward with a controversial security bill. Reuters reports on the legislation, which would allow Japanese troops to fight overseas--a proposal that many say would violate Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution. The government argues that increased Chinese aggression in the South China Sea necessitates a more muscular Japanese military.

Speaking of the South China Sea, Bloomberg tells us that Japan will provide Vietnam with $832 million in infrastructure aid to support its patrolling of the disputed area, along with the $1.7 million in used ships and military equipment reported yesterday. The two countries have recently sought to strengthen their ties in order to present a more united front against an aggressive China.

Defense One brings us two stories on arms manufacturing and sales out of the United Kingdom today. The U.K. is hosting one of the world’s largest arms fairs this week. Of the attending 61 countries, 14 are authoritarian regimes and 4 have been listed as “countries of concern” by the U.K. government. (That’s Colombia, Iraq, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, for those keeping track.) Defense Secretary Michael Fallon has asked defense companies to design military equipment for export, the better to boost the U.K. economy.

The European Union has proposed a new international court system to update the existing investor-state dispute settlement mechanism, the Journal writes. The Investment Court System would be modeled on existing international courts such as the International Court of Justice and would create a system for resolving disputes between states and foreign investors over seizures property or perceived unfair treatment. E.U. officials argue that the court’s establishment would ease diplomatic tensions over the planned Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership agreement.

Politico reports on the CIA’s planned release of nearly 2,500 of the agency’s daily briefings provided to Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s. The agency had previously insisted that the President’s Daily Briefs, or PDBs, must be kept secret even years after their writing, and a release of PDBs on this scale is unprecedented. CIA Director John Brennan and DNI James Clapper will attend the unveiling of the documents at the Johnson Presidential Library later today.

Carol Rosenberg at the Miami Herald brings us news that Omar Mohammed Khalif, one of four Libyan detainees at Guantanamo, has been cleared for release. Khalif was captured in 2002 and has a history of mediating disputes between detainees and guards.

President Vladimir Putin and singer Elton John spoke yesterday on the phone about gay rights in Russia. Wait: That didn’t happen. Or did it? The Times reports on the amusing mixed messages coming from both the Kremlin and Elton John’s Instagram account, and the Guardian suggests that the incident may trace back to two Russian pranksters.

Parting shot: Earlier today, a Somali-American boy was arrested on suspicion of terrorism after bringing his homemade clock to school. Following the arrest, President Obama extended a White House invitation to the Texas boy, praising him for his interest in science.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Jack updated us on the U.S. government’s continuing difficulties with cyber deterrence.

Bruce Riedel reviewed Joby Warrick’s upcoming Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS.

Email the Roundup Team noteworthy law and security-related articles to include, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook for additional commentary on these issues. Sign up to receive Lawfare in your inbox. Visit our Events Calendar to learn about upcoming national security events, and check out relevant job openings on our Job Board.