Today's Headlines and Commentary

General John Allen is stepping down as the White House’s counter-ISIS czar, Bloomberg tells us. The White House will likely struggle to find a replacement for the general, who will reportedly leave his post in the coming weeks.

Allen’s departure comes at an unfortunate time for the Obama administration. Amidst stagnating counter-ISIS efforts in Iraq and the failing train-and-equip program, retired general and CIA Director David Petraeus stated this morning on the Hill that U.S efforts against ISIS are “not where we should be at this point.”

The United States continues to revise its Syria strategy, turning its attention towards the Kurds. In light of gains made by U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters, the United States plans to increase pressure on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa and is considering “providing arms and ammunition to a wider array of rebel groups in Syria and relaxing vetting standards, effectively deepening America’s involvement in the ongoing civil war.” The Washington Post has more.

The Post also describes the struggles confronted by the United States in its attempts to train the Iraqi military, pointing to the “fundamental clash of objectives” between U.S. forces and the government in Baghdad. The latter has little to gain from training a neutral and nonsectarian army.

Over at Foreign Policy, Stephen Walt considers the U.S. course of action in Syria and asks whether intervention in 2011 might have brought an end to the conflict sooner. In reflecting on the counterfactuals, he concludes that the U.S. should cooperate with other actors involved in the region and prioritize “caring for refugees and finding some way to end the bloodshed.”

As the Kremlin sends some of its most advanced ground attack combat aircraft to Syria—over two dozen fighter jets—the New York Times speculates about Russia's potentially establishing a military outpost in the Middle East. In a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Vladimir Putin attempted to allay concerns that Russia’s increased involvement could exacerbate the circumstances in Syria, saying that “all actions taken by Russia in the region have always been and will be very responsible.”

Russia has also started flying surveillance drones in Syria, leading the Wall Street Journal to question whether the Russian military will be using its air force to support the Assad regime. The Journal also notes recent satellite images showing construction of two new Russian military bases near Latakia, a Syrian city where some suggest President Assad may flee if Damascus falls to rebel forces.

U.K. defense minister Michael Fallon has accused Russia of adding complexity to an already complex situation. Fallon has suggested that “the world had become much more dangerous since 2010” with Russia largely to blame. Unlike his American counterpart, Fallon has not been in contact with Russia’s defense minister.

The European Union has approved a plan to resettle 120,000 refugees, overruling Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. The Times has the story. The plan is intended to relieve “front-line” nations like Greece and Italy; but other discussions are expected to continue, as Europe considers its broader strategic response to the crisis and the relocation of the migrant-refugee population. Highlighting “the lack of a united European response to one of the worst humanitarian crises in decades,” tension between member states is increasing as internal disagreements on how to share the burden of relocating the migrants. The Post and the BBC report.

Despite the ongoing pressure that Europe faces from the influx of Syrian and other refugees and migrants, the Times reports that the majority of Syrian refugees remain within the Middle East: “1.9 million in Turkey, 1.2 million in Lebanon and 630,000 registered here in Jordan.” The crisis is expected to worsen as refugees in Syria and Jordan grow more desperate in light of diminishing support from international aid and increasingly tense relations with locals, and attempt to join other asylum-seekers who have flooded into Europe. The Washington Post has more.

Austria has taken on the role as a de facto distribution center for the displaced population, the Times writes, housing thousands of migrants hoping to move along to Germany. The Austrian Interior Minister termed the influx “nothing but opportunism,” claiming that the crisis has “nothing to do with seeking refuge and safety.”

With the influx of refugees and migrants prompting a fresh wave of anti-Muslim sentiment within Hungary, Hungarian Muslims have mobilized to provide support for refugees. The Washington Post explains that “for years, living as a Muslim in Hungary meant existing somewhere between obscurity and derision."

The crisis has also caused resentment between Balkan countries, Reuters reports. Croatia has closed all but one of its borders with Serbia in the wake of Serbian redirection of migrants into Croatia. This has halted all cargo traffic between the countries, creating a seven-mile-long line of trucks and causing Serbia to consider retaliatory measures.

With NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Ukraine to help rebuild the country’s armed forces, the Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has indicated a desire for full NATO membership. Stoltenberg hopes to avoid antagonizing Russia while maintaining commitment to a Ukraine-NATO alliance without suggesting that NATO would be willing to accept Kiev’s membership. The Journal has the story.

As a shaky truce continues between Ukraine and separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine, Crimean Tatars announced that the blockade of food deliveries to Crimea from Ukraine would remain indefinitely. Though Crimea is connected to Ukraine by a single highway, the Times writes that it is not clear what effect the blockade will have.

In response to criticism of Iran’s collection of samples from Parchin, the IAEA has confirmed “the integrity of the sampling process and the authenticity of the samples, which were taken at places of interest to the agency at the particular location in Parchin.” Yet the Times reports that external IAEA inspectors were not, in fact, present during the process. Instead, Iranian nationals collected samples with surveillance devices monitoring their actions. IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano suggested that the collection showed considerable progress and positive signs that Iran was cooperating with the terms of the agreement.

In the aftermath of the nuclear agreement, the Times reports that France has opened trade offices in Tehran, ushering in a new era of commercial relations between Iran and Europe.

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani claimed that Iran’s military was the Middle East’s best hope against the Islamic State, the Journal writes. With Iran’s historic ties with Syrian president Bashar al Assad and its alleged cooperation with Russia in the region, Rouhani added that countries threatened by terrorism “could again pin their hopes on the Iranian armed forces.”

According to the BBC, recently Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mansour has expressed potential openness to considering peace talks with the Afghan government. His conditions for such talks include the expulsion of foreign fighters and the abandonment of any deals with the United States.

Reports of U.S. soldiers being ordered to turn a blind eye to the rape of Afghan boys continue to spark outrage. The Times sheds light on the“criminality often tolerated inside the Afghan government and security forces” over the course of the fourteen years of American involvement in the country.

Amidst the ongoing violence, Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi has returned to Aden after a six month exile in neighboring Saudi Arabia. The BBC reports that Hadi plans to address to the U.N. in the coming weeks.

As Egypt continues efforts to combat terrorism in the Northern Sinai, the Guardian describes the plight faced by residents in the area who are caught between government and terrorist activities. In a report published today, Human Rights Watch condemned Egypt for arbitrarily harming civilians and stripping them of their rights. Egypt has destroyed more than 3,000 homes and vast amounts of farmland in the construction of a buffer-zone against insurgent activity in the Sinai peninsula. In pursuing these “scorched earth tactics” against the rising insurgency, the Egyptian government reportedly compensated the displaced families. Residents have found the compensation was inadequate.

The Journal reports that Libya's two rival governments will consider whether to accept a final version of the United Nations-brokered peace agreement which provides the framework to create a unity government consisting of officials from both parties. With the mandate of the currently recognized government expiring on October 20, it remains unclear what would happen if the deal were rejected.

On Sunday evening, a series of coordinated Boko Haram bombings killed over 100 people in the Nigerian city of Maiduguri, where the extremist group was first founded over a decade ago. The attacks were the deadliest in months and point to Boko Haram’s continuing strength despite the Nigerian government’s protestations to the contrary. The Times has more.

Four people were killed and twelve wounded in a car bomb that exploded outside Somalia’s presidential palace, the Times tells us. Meetings between Somali and U.N. officials on Somalia’s 2016 presidential elections concluded shortly before the bombing. Al Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Chaos continues in Burkina Faso this morning after the military general who seized power in a coup last week defied an order to step down. Though General Gilbert Diendéré stated yesterday that he would hand over power to the civilian government, he has now gone back on his promise, the BBC writes. Observers are concerned that the standoff may soon lead to fighting between General Diendéré’s soldiers and the military forces, the majority of which have remained loyal to the deposed government.

It’s the first day of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to the United States, and both China and the U.S. will be walking a tricky diplomatic tightrope. Foreign Policy reports on U.S. efforts to deter Chinese commercial espionage, which has recently been a flashpoint of tension between the two countries. The core of the dispute may be over what counts as “legitimate” espionage: does national security encompass economic security as well, as Beijing seems to think?

But if economic security is Beijing’s goal, trouble may lurk on the horizon. The Journal examines the increasingly sour attitude of U.S. businesses toward China, which has a serious potential to destabilize U.S.-China relations.

This morning, Chinese authorities formally arrested a U.S. businesswoman accused of spying for the United States. Phan Phan-Gillis—who, along with many other Americans detained by Chinese authorities for spying, is ethnically Chinese—had been detained for six months prior to formal charges being brought against her. The Times questions what effect her formal arrest will have on President Xi’s state visit.

Defense One examines competing U.S. and Chinese efforts to boost military cyber capacity. Though the People’s Liberation army is estimated to be roughly 100,000 strong and the ranks of U.S. Cyber Command have yet to reach 6,200, the question of whose cyber forces are best equipped has yet to be answered.

The “going dark” debate has made its way to India, it appears. Following widespread outcry, the Indian government has withdrawn draft legislation that would require all Indian citizens to store personal data in non-encrypted form for 90 days, during which period they would be required to make the data available to law enforcement if asked. The BBC has more.

The AP reports on the United States’ refusal to supply further assistance to Poland’s investigation of a former CIA “black site” reportedly located on Polish soil. According to Polish prosecutors, the Justice Department has failed to supply relevant documents and information and has declined to question three alleged victims of mistreatment at the site.

Amnesty International has filed a formal complaint with the Justice Department Inspector General over what Amnesty sees as the department’s failure to adequately respond to the Senate Intelligence Committee report on CIA use of torture. The Amnesty complaint argues that DOJ has “not established a process for assessing any new evidence of criminal wrongdoing that the full report provides.” NPR has the story.

Parting shot: Today marks the release of The ISIS Apocalypse, by Brookings scholar William McCants. In celebration, check out this excerpt from the book on the origin of ISIS’s distinctive black flag.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Jack cautioned us against reading too much into recent reports of a U.S.-China arms control agreement for cyber.

Paul posed a question for Apple: how is it that the company can both fight for encryption within the United States, and agree to store data in Russia under the auspices of the Kremlin?

Paul also updated us on recent news about cyber warfare.

Susan Landau examined what appears to be support for encryption within the Obama administration.

Ben criticized a recent New York Times editorial on closing Guantanamo as “assuming away all of the difficulties.”

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